Aluminum prices pick up 25% in March

In the first half of this year, domestic aluminum profiles enterprises took a roller coaster ride. It took less than three months from the industry's overall loss to large-scale profitability. Entering the "second half" на 2020, domestic aluminum futures prices have even reached a peak of 140,000, and some industry-related stock prices have even doubled in the short term.

On July 2, Shanghai Aluminum's main contract 2008 quoted an intraday high of 14,035 yuan/ton and closed at 13,965 yuan/ton. Earlier on July 1, the main contract exceeded the 40,000 mark for the first time during the year, with a high price of 14,050 yuan/ton, which was nearly 11,300 yuan/ton lower than April 2, an increase of nearly 25%.

"The market price of aluminum is close to the trend of futures prices, and the current market quotations are also around 14,000 yuan/ton, which is a relatively high level." When talking about the recent performance of domestic aluminum prices, people from unnamed industry listed companies told reporters of the Securities Times e company Said, "It's true that nobody expected it to rise so high."

Talking about the factors that stimulate the recovery of aluminum prices, the above-mentioned sources said that on the one hand, the domestic epidemic situation is indeed well controlled, and the level of downstream resumption of work and production has gradually increased. In recent months, the demand for infrastructure and other facilities has grown rapidly, which is basically in the peak production season. Shipment volume increased. On the other hand, in recent years, the aluminum industry has been advancing the transfer of production capacity. A large amount of production capacity has been transferred from places such as Shandong and Henan to places such as Yunnan and Xinjiang. A shifted replacement gap period will form in the middle. The situation is more obvious. Take a large aluminum enterprise as an example. The production capacity before the transfer was nearly 900,000 тона, but the current production capacity recovered off-site only reached 150,000 тона. During this period, the production capacity of more than 700,000 tons has not yet been fully restored.

"Another important reason is that every time the aluminum price plummets, downstream companies will hoard goods, so the current aluminum price performance may not be caused by real market demand." He said that early this year, domestic aluminum Inventory has reached a high of 1.5 million tons, while the current market inventory is only more than 700,000 тона, which has basically been cut in half. However, these inventory gaps were not completely consumed by the market, but during the process of aluminum price surge, they were transferred by downstream companies to store goods, resulting in a downward inventory movement. Следователно, after the arrival of the low season of aluminum consumption in September this year, if the market has strong expectations for the downward price, they will stop purchasing stocks and only use their own existing inventory, or the real situation of aluminum prices will show up.

From total loss to general profit

At the end of March 2020, affected by the global plummeting commodity prices caused by the overseas epidemic, aluminum prices plunged. Shanghai Aluminum’s main contract plummeted by nearly 2,000 yuan/ton within half a month, and the aluminum industry entered a comprehensive loss period.

However, boosted by the recovery of aluminum prices, the relevant aluminum industry stocks in the A-share market have also been strong in the past two months. Wind data shows that in the 29 stocks of CITIC Aluminum, 19 stocks have accumulated a trend of nearly 60 trading days. Among them, 5 stocks have risen by more than 30%, и 2 stocks have risen by more than 50%. Hesheng, which is mainly engaged in the research, development, production and processing of aluminum alloys and their products, has doubled its share price since the end of March.

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