IAI releases assessment report optimistic about aluminum industry in post-epidemic period

A few days ago, the International Aluminum Profiles Association issued a "preliminary assessment report on the impact of the new crown epidemic on global aluminum demand" prepared by a third-party company. Although the report lowered the previous forecast, it is still optimistic about the aluminum industry in the post-epidemic period. It is expected that by 2050, global aluminum demand will reach 298 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 3.8%; the previous forecast was 337 million tons, with an average annual The increase was 4.2%.

The report pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on the global aluminum industry is divided. The global automotive industry is almost stagnant, with production shutdowns lasting more than 8 weeks, and production has decreased by more than 20%; North America and Europe have strong production of cans; aluminum foil is facing greater growth resistance; extruded materials, especially in the construction sector and heat exchangers In the field, facing severe market challenges, demand shrinks in the short term. Although aluminum demand will inevitably decline this year, long-term drivers of aluminum demand growth after the epidemic will still exist. 따라서, we remain extremely optimistic about global aluminum demand in the middle of this century.

The report also predicts China's aluminum demand in 2020, and believes that China's aluminum demand will decline by 1% year-on-year in 2020, while the growth rate will exceed 7% in 2021. ~ 안에 2020, aluminum demand in the automotive and light truck sectors fell 9% year-on-year, and aluminum demand in the construction sector followed GDP growth to 2.5%.

The report combines IMF forecasts and industry surveys. 83% of the respondents said that the epidemic will only have a short-term impact on aluminum consumption, and most expect the Chinese economy to rebound in 2021. 56% of respondents believe that the epidemic will not lead to fundamental changes in supply and consumption, and low-cost and well-performing companies can even benefit from it and increase market share.

Before the outbreak, the growing demand for environmental solutions in transportation, infrastructure, energy and food safety has become a trend, and the outbreak has accelerated this trend. Compared with other materials, aluminum has stronger recyclability and sustainable performance, and about 75% of aluminum is still in use today.

MilesProsser, Secretary General of the International Aluminum Association, said that the world is in a special period of the new crown epidemic. Like other industries, the aluminum industry needs to adapt to the expectations of the society for ESG (Environmental Environment, Social, Corporate Governance), especially in 2020. Environmental responsibility, social responsibility and economic responsibility, responsible for raw materials, reduce carbon emissions and reduce environmental pollution. Although the industry is still facing challenges in the short term, there are reasons to remain optimistic and the industry needs to work together—consumers, industry leaders, governments and all stakeholders play a role in achieving positive change.

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