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Aluminium daily review(10 March 2023)

Author : Kyle

Update time : 2023-03-10 14:17:13

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The relevant information in this article comes from publicly available information. This platform does not make any guarantees for the correctness, fairness and completeness of the relevant information; the content of this article only represents the judgment of the researcher at the time of publishing the article. Any changes will occur without further notice; the content of this article does not represent the recommendation of our company, nor does it constitute investment advice to investors. Investors invest accordingly and at their own risk; the copyright of this article belongs to our company. If a third party quotes or reprints, the source must be indicated, and no deletion or modification contrary to the original intention of this article is allowed.

The aluminum market's mood to receive goods has cooled, and the basis difference has been weakly revised

Today, the main contract al2304 of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 18,550 yuan, the highest price in the day was 18,620 yuan, and the lowest price in the day was 18,450 yuan. It closed down 0.08% to 18,495 yuan. Today, the price of aluminum in South China is quoted at 18,500 yuan, which is 0 yuan from the previous day. Today, the average spot price of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai is 18,460 yuan, a drop of 10 yuan, the SMM quote is 70-30 yuan, and the average price is 50 yuan, an increase of 0 yuan from the previous day.

Today's Information ·

Spot goods

Today's aluminum price is stable and adjusted, and the market performance is under pressure. Although the inventory continues to be depleted, the base is still too large. The quotation is between 0~+10, and the overall transaction is average. In the later period, the futures price fell, and the price adjustment range of the holders was different. The quotation was as low as -60, and the buyer made a small amount of replenishment at low prices. The spot transaction price is concentrated at 18440-18510 yuan.

the macro

1. The head of the U.S. Department of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce responded that "U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo intends to visit China" and stated that China has not received any suggestion from the U.S. side about Secretary Raimondo's visit to China. It is very important for the business departments of the two sides to maintain dialogue and communication, and they are open to Minister Raimondo's wish to visit China.

2. The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that the overall economic activity in the United States will increase slightly in early 2023, and it is expected that the economic situation in the United States will not improve much in the next few months.

supply and demand

1. According to SMM data, the domestic output of electrolytic aluminum in January 2023 was 3.418 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The average daily output decreased by 642 tons from the previous month to 110,300 tons per day. The power shortage in the southwest region is difficult to ease in the short term, and the Yunnan region has once again reduced production capacity, which is expected to affect 850,000 tons, which is higher than expected. Production in February is expected to decline month-on-month.

2. The downstream resumed work one after another after the festival, and the downstream started to pick up slightly. In the week of March 3, the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 60%, +2 percentage points week-on-week; the operating rate of aluminum strips was 78.2%, +0.4 percentage points week-on-week; aluminum foil started The operating rate of aluminum products was 63%, which was +1.2 percentage points on a week-on-week basis. After the festival, the downstream construction gradually resumed, but the current real estate sales transactions still have no obvious improvement. Developers are still in short supply of funds, and it is difficult to collect payments, which will restrict the subsequent start of construction. The inventory is high, and the current price is still mainly digested.

3. On March 6, SMM counted 1.269 million tons of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory, which was the same as last Thursday's inventory, a monthly increase of 283,000 tons compared with the inventory at the end of January, and an increase of 125,000 tons compared with the historical inventory of the same period in March 2022. Compared with the 1.19 days before the Spring Festival, the cumulative increase in inventory was 525,000 tons.

· Summary ·

The downstream operating rate increased, the speed of aluminum rod out of the warehouse accelerated, and the speed of aluminum ingot accumulation slowed down as expected. However, there is still no significant improvement in the current real estate sales transactions. Developers are still in short supply of funds. The main problem is the slow payment of funds, which will restrict the subsequent start of construction. On the supply side, affected by the decline in water inflows in the dry season in Yunnan, 850,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum pressure loads have been reduced, which is higher than expected, but the impact is weak as demand has not yet been confirmed and high inventories are high. China's PMI data in February was better than expected, indicating that the manufacturing industry recovered after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the continuity of demand. Recently, Powell once again made a hawkish statement, and the main contract is concerned about the support of 18,000.

Previous : Aluminium Weekly review 11 March 2023

Next : Aluminium ingot price daily review

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Aluminium daily review(10 March 2023)