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Aluminium daily review(26 March 2023)

Author : Kyle

Update time : 2023-03-27 15:29:47

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The relevant information of this article is derived from the public information. This platform does not guarantee the correctness, justice and integrity of the relevant information. This article only represents the judgment of the researcher when the article is published. Any changes occur, and there will be no separate notice when the change; the content of this article does not represent the recommendation opinion of this company, nor does it constitute an investment proposal to investors. Investors invest in accordance with this, and the risks should be borne. If a third party quotes and reproduces, the source needs to be indicated, and it must not be deleted from the original intention of this article.

Aluminum daily review

Today, the opening price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum AL2305 was 18,210 yuan, the highest price in the daily day was 18,350 yuan, and the lowest price in the daily day was 18,170 yuan. Today, South China aluminum price was reported to 18,280 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day. Today, the average spot price of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai was 18,150 yuan, up 50 yuan, SMM reported 100-stickers 60, and the average price was 80 yuan, down 0 yuan from the previous day.

Today's information:

Foshan spot

Today's aluminum prices have risen slightly, the spot market continues to kill and fall, and the reality of the rapid and exfoliating inventory cannot change the expectations of increased goods. At the increase in the number of traders, there are also purchases in the downstream, and the transactions of low -cost goods have improved. The future price price rises, the holder and the rising are weak. The highest quotation is up and down at +40. The spot transaction price is concentrated at 18240-18320 yuan.

Macro

1. On Wednesday, March 22, the Federal Reserve raised 25 basis points as scheduled, which raised the federal fund interest rate to the target range of 4.75%-5%, which was the highest level since the outbreak of the financial crisis in September 2007. This is the ninth consecutive rate of interest rate hikes since March last year, and it has also slowed to 25 basis points in a row. After the resolution was released, the market continued to expect that the US interest rate hike cycle was close to the end. Before the end of this year, it may start to cut interest rates to 4.19%to deal with economic slowdown.

2. In response to the promotional price reduction of the domestic auto market since March, the China Automobile Association issued a statement that the price reduction of this round of price reduction should be cooled as soon as possible, so that the industry will return to normal operation and ensure the healthy and stable development of the industry throughout the year. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Circulation Association, the retail sales of my country's passenger car market from March 1st to 12th, a retail sales of the passenger car market, 414,000 units, a decrease of 17%year -on -year, and a 11%decrease from the same period last month.

supply and demand

1. SMM data shows that the domestic electrolytic aluminum output in February was 3.092 million tons, an increase of 4.9%year -on -year. From January to February 2023, the cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum in China was about 6.51 million tons, an increase of 5.8%year-on-year. At the end of February, the electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan was reduced to reduce production, and the enterprise concentratedly pumping aluminum water -cast ingots. The industry's output did not follow the operating capacity and fell rapidly. The output is expected to be 3.39 million tons in March.

2. After the downstream festival, the work is resumed, and the downstream starts rose slightly. On March 16th, the operating rate of aluminum profile was 63.5%, and the percentage of the period was +3 percentage points; The rate is 81.1%, and the weekly is the same. The construction of the downstream of the festival gradually recovered, the margin of real estate data turned warming, and the inventory of aluminum ingots declined.

3. On March 20, 2023, SMM counted the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory of 1.173 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the inventory last Thursday, an increase of 109,000 tons from the same period in March 2022, which was a decrease in the cumulative inventory in early March. 96,000 tons.

On March 20, SMM counted the national aluminum rod inventory of 177,300 tons, and the national aluminum rod social inventory continued to accumulate, compared with the 07,900 tons of accumulated libraries from last Thursday (March 16).

· Summary ·

The Federal Reserve expected 25 basis points to raise interest rates and stated that the overall partial pigeon faction, but Yellen's statement denied that the US government on Tuesday was considered to expand the insurance to all deposits. The price of aluminum is down, stimulating the stocking downstream, the inventory declines sharply, or the current turning point. At the same time, the margin of real estate data has become warm, domestic macro stimulus has continued, and the social integration continues to improve in February. In terms of cost, the supply of raw materials is tight, the heating season is limited, and the profits of alumina enterprises have a small profit, which has formed a certain support for electrolytic aluminum prices. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will maintain a trend in the short term and pay attention to 18,000 support.

Previous : Analyzing the Differences Between Chinese Aluminum Ingot and LME Prices

Next : Aluminium market weekly review(17 March 2023)

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Aluminium daily review(26 March 2023)