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Aluminium market weekly review(17 March 2023)

Author : Kyle

Update time : 2023-03-23 12:21:42

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The relevant information of this article is derived from the public information. This platform does not guarantee the correctness, justice and integrity of the relevant information. This article only represents the judgment of the researcher when the article is published. Any changes occur, and there will be no separate notice when the change; the content of this article does not represent the recommendation opinion of this company, nor does it constitute an investment proposal to investors. Investors invest in accordance with this, and the risks should be borne. If a third party quotes and reproduces, the source needs to be indicated, and it must not be deleted from the original intention of this article.

01 market review

The risk incident in the United States is fermented, the risk appetite of the financial market has declined, and the trend of aluminum prices this week is weak. The inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory, while the proportion of aluminum water increases, and the market aluminum rods have gradually arrived. This week, aluminum stick inventory has increased slightly, and the spot stickers are narrowing from yesterday. Yunnan's production reduction gradually landed, and the downstream aluminum processing gradually entered the traditional peak season. Driven by the start of the order, 18,000 below the aluminum price was temporarily supported.

【Futures Quotes】

The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum has fallen by 0.19%this week. The initial price of this cycle is 18,245 yuan/ton, the final price is 18,230 yuan/ton, the highest price is 18,465 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 18035 yuan/ton.

【Spot Quotes】

The overall transaction of the spot market has not changed much, and the downstream is maintained on demand purchase , and the overall downstream orders are rising slowly. On Friday, the mainstream transaction price in East China was around 18,140 yuan/ton, and posted 60 yuan for the month. The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong was around 18,300 yuan/ton, and it rose 100 yuan to the month.

02 liter stickers water and price difference

This week's rising water rises first, and the difference between East China and South China has expanded.

03 Macro information this week

1. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to February, 5357.7 billion yuan in fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) nationwide, a year -on -year increase of 5.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment was 294.2 billion yuan, an increase of 0.8%year -on -year. From a month -on -month perspective, in February, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 0.72%.

2. The number of non -agricultural employment in the United States increased by 311,000 in February, an estimated increase of 225,000, an increase of 517,000. The average hourly salary in the United States increased by 4.6 % year -on -year and an estimated increase of 4.7 %. The unemployment rate in the United States in February was 3.6%, and it was estimated to be 3.4%, and the previous value was 3.4%.

3. In February, the U.S. PPI inflation decreased unexpectedly, but the retail sales of sales significantly cooled, and the New York State Manufacturing Index shrinking for four consecutive months. The National Bank of Saudi Saudi Saudi Saudi Credit Saudi Arabia claims that it will not invest again, detonating the European and American bank crisis, and the market has re -lowered the expectations of interest rate hike expectations.

04 basic aspect

1. Import profit

As of March 16, 2023, the closing price of the LME aluminum was 2,280 US dollars/ton; the closing price of the main contract of aluminum aluminum in Shanghai and Shanghai was 18,135 yuan/ton, and the inverted inverted inversion was 531.14 yuan/ton. The inverted inverted hanging is nearly 187 yuan/ton compared with last week.

2. The cost of aluminum companies falls, and some production capacity in Sichuan is resumed

Last week, the profits and costs of domestic electrolytic aluminum companies fell at the same time, and the average profit of electrolytic aluminum companies fell around 337 yuan/ton to 945 yuan/ton. Last week, aluminum prices at home and abroad fell simultaneously. The number of employment in the United States and non -agricultural data was stronger than expected. In addition, the Silicon Valley Bank incident broke out on weekends. This week, Creditses resurrected the waves, aluminum prices fell again, and the profit of aluminum prices decreased slightly. From the cost of electrolytic aluminum, there is still room for decline in raw materials. The auxiliary materials temporarily stopped falling, and the overall cost returns to nearly 17,200 yuan/ton. Last week, Guangyuan Linfeng and Guangyuan Zhongfu had a total of 500,000 tons/annual electrolytic aluminum. The company originally planned to resume production at the end of last year, and delayed the re -production due to the cost of power costs. However, due to the large production capacity of production in Yunnan, and the recent processing rate of processing enterprises has continued to recover, the resumption of production in Sichuan has not changed significantly in the recent shortage pattern.

3. The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is temporarily stable

The operating rate of downstream machining enterprises in aluminum rose 0.2 percentage points from a month -on -month to 63.2%. Enterprises such as aluminum profiles and regenerative aluminum alloys have reached a month -on -month pilot, and the operating rate of other aluminum processing enterprises is flat last week.

In terms of division: Last week, the order of the aluminum profile sector improved again. On the one hand, the order of building profiles increased significantly compared to the Spring Festival, and on the other hand, the photovoltaic material began to increase the incremental amount. In addition, the regenerative aluminum alloy sector, after aluminum prices fall, the terminal orders and inquiry orders have improved from the previous quarter, but the order increase is limited.

4. Inventory

1. As of March 16, 2023, the LME aluminum inventory was 530,550 tons, an increase of 20,625 tons from the previous week, and the proportion of cancellation warehouse receipts was 19.83%.

2. As of March 16, 2023, the total inventory of the electrolytic aluminum society was 1.141 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons from the previous week.

3. As of March 17, 2023, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 311,461 tons, an increase of 573 tons from the previous week.

05 Summary

Supply side: SMM data shows that in February, domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.092 million tons, an increase of 4.9%year -on -year. From January to February 2023, the cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum in China was about 6.51 million tons, an increase of 5.8%year-on-year. At the end of February, the electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan was reduced to reduce production, and the enterprise concentratedly pumping aluminum water -cast ingots. The industry's output did not follow the operating capacity and fell rapidly. The output is expected to be 3.39 million tons in March.

Consumption side: On March 9th, the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 60.5%, and the percentage point of the weekly was +0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of the aluminum plate belt was 78.2%, and the weekly circular was the same; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 81.1%, and the weekly was the same. The construction of downstream after the festival has gradually recovered, but the current real estate sales transactions have not improved significantly. Developers are still scarce, and the money is difficult. It will restrict follow -up construction.

Cost side: Last week, the profit and cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum companies fell at the same time. The average profit of electrolytic aluminum companies in the country fell 337 yuan/ton to 945 yuan/ton. This week, aluminum prices rose slightly, and electrolytic aluminum maintained a better profit level.

In summary: The bank crisis spread to Europe, and the panic emotions again heated up again, which put a certain pressure on aluminum prices. The downstream is maintained on demand purchase, and the overall order is rising. At present, the fundamentals of domestic supply and demand have been improved slowly, but the current real estate sales transactions still have no significant improvement. Developers' funds are still scarce, and the return on money will be slow. It will restrict subsequent construction. Condition.

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Aluminium market weekly review(17 March 2023)