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Aluminium daily review(16 March 2023)

Author : Kyle

Update time : 2023-03-16 17:21:30

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The relevant information of this article is derived from the public information. This platform does not guarantee the correctness, justice and integrity of the relevant information. This article only represents the judgment of the researcher when the article is published. Any changes occur, and there will be no separate notice when the change; the content of this article does not represent the recommendation opinion of this company, nor does it constitute an investment proposal to investors. Investors invest in accordance with this, and the risks should be borne. If a third party quotes and reproduces, the source needs to be indicated, and it must not be deleted from the original intention of this article.

aluminum

Daily review

Aluminum inventory fell slightly, followed 18000 support

· Review of the market

Today, the opening price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum AL2304 was 18,210 yuan, the highest price in the daily day was 18,220 yuan, and the lowest price in the daily day was 18,035 yuan. Today, South China aluminum price was reported at 18,250 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day. Today, the average spot price of Shanghai electrolytic aluminum is 18,140 yuan, down 180 yuan, SMM reported 60-stickers 20, and the average price was 400 yuan, which was 50 yuan from the previous day.

· Today Information ·

Spot goods

Today's aluminum prices turn down, the market continues to slow down. The pick -up party in the morning actively inquires. The business of the market is raised, and the quotation is reduced from +30 to +10, and the transaction has also changed. The future price of the futures fluctuates, and the cargo vendor coexist with the bidding price. The lowest price is about -50. The buyer has inquiry and replenishment, but the high price is not accepted and a small amount of specific transactions. The spot transaction price is concentrated at 18190-18270 yuan.

Macro

1. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to February 2023, infrastructure investment increased by 9.0%year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points from January to December 2022; Percentage points; real estate investment decreased by 5.7%year-on-year, a narrowing of 4.3 percentage points; from January to February, the average daily output of Chinese crude steel was 2.8593 million tons, an increase of 5.6%year-on-year.

2. In February, the U.S. PPI inflation declined unexpectedly, but retail sales have been reduced sharply. The New York State Manufacturing Index has shrunk for four consecutive months. The National Bank of Saudi Saudi Saudi Saudi Credit Saudi Arabia claims that it will not invest again, detonating the European and American bank crisis, and the market has re -lowered the expectations of interest rate hike expectations.

supply and demand

1. SMM data shows that the domestic electrolytic aluminum output in February was 3.092 million tons, an increase of 4.9%year -on -year. From January to February 2023, the cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum in China was about 6.51 million tons, an increase of 5.8%year-on-year. At the end of February, the electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan was reduced to reduce production, and the enterprise concentratedly pumping aluminum water -cast ingots. The industry's output did not follow the operating capacity and fell rapidly. The output is expected to be 3.39 million tons in March.

2. In the week of March 9, the operating rate of aluminum profile was 60.5%, and the weekly ring was +0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of the aluminum plate belt was 78.2%, and the weekly was flat; The construction of downstream after the festival has gradually recovered, but the current real estate sales transactions still have no significant improvement. Developers are still scarce, and the money is difficult. It will restrict follow -up construction. The inventory is high. The current price is still mainly digestive inventory.

3. On March 14, SMM counted the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory of 1.246 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the inventory last Thursday, and a total of 23,000 tons from the cumulative inventory in early March.

· Summary ·

The bank crisis spread to Europe, and the panic emotions again heated up again. Overnight, metal fell across the board overnight. The price of aluminum in March in LME fell 3%to 2281.5 US dollars/ton. In the morning, the overall transaction of the spot market has not changed much. The downstream maintenance is maintained on demand. At present, the fundamentals of domestic supply and demand have been slowly improved, and the explicit inventory is de -divorced. However, the panic of the European and American banking industry leads the current market, and aluminum prices are suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see in operation, and be cautious.

Previous : Aluminium market weekly review(17 March 2023)

Next : Aluminium daily review (15 March 2023)

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Aluminium daily review(16 March 2023)