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Aluminium daily review (15 March 2023)

Author : Kyle

Update time : 2023-03-16 11:27:11

Aluminum daily review

Aluminum spot stickers narrowed, short -term shocking trend

· Review of the market

Today, the opening price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum AL2304 was 18,325 yuan, the highest price in the daily day was 18,420 yuan, and the lowest price in the daily day was 18,285 yuan. Today, South China aluminum price was reported at 18410 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day. Today, the average spot price of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai was 18320 yuan, up 50 yuan, SMM reported 10-liter 30, and the average price rose 10 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day.

· Today Information ·

Spot goods

Today's aluminum prices continue to rise, and the market sentiment has eased. The stock -ups are expected to maintain the inventory of the value of the value of the stock. The circulation is gradually relaxed. , Cold the transaction. The future price price fell, and the holder also lowered the price. The quotation was as low as -40. The buyer made a small amount of low-cost goods, and the high price was still valuable. The spot transaction price is concentrated at 18370-18440 yuan, which is raised by -40 ~ 30 yuan from the average price of Southern Foshan.

Macro

1. The US February CPI inflation is in line with expectations. The core service of the deduction of housing is the highest in five months. The market re -bet on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week, instead of suspending interest rate hikes.

2. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Accelerate the implementation of major engineering projects in the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan", play the role of key areas, stabilize the development of key industries, and consolidate the industrial economy's recovery to a good momentum.

supply and demand

1. SMM data shows that the domestic electrolytic aluminum output in February was 3.092 million tons, an increase of 4.9%year -on -year. From January to February 2023, the cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum in China was about 6.51 million tons, an increase of 5.8%year-on-year. At the end of February, the electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan was reduced to reduce production, and the enterprise concentratedly pumping aluminum water -cast ingots. The industry's output did not follow the operating capacity and fell rapidly. The output is expected to be 3.39 million tons in March.

2. In the week of March 9, the operating rate of aluminum profile was 60.5%, and the weekly ring was +0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of the aluminum plate belt was 78.2%, and the weekly was flat; The construction of downstream after the festival has gradually recovered, but the current real estate sales transactions still have no significant improvement. Developers are still scarce, and the money is difficult. It will restrict follow -up construction. The inventory is high. The current price is still mainly digestive inventory.

3. From January to February, China ’s real estate development investment was 1366.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; the sales area of commercial housing was 151.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%.

4. On March 14, SMM counted the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory of 1.246 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the inventory last Thursday. Ton.

· Summary ·

In summary, the short -term market will continue the pattern of slow improvement of supply and demand fundamentals. The output declined in the phase due to Yunnan's reduction in place, and the supply end was downward. The consumer side has continued to improve, but the overall demand is weak, The explicit inventory is relatively slow, and the explicit inventory is still at a high level. Recently, macro -faced emotions have fluctuated. In February, non -agricultural data performance exceeded expectations. Silicon Valley Bank's thunderstorms have exacerbated the market's concerns about systemic financial risks, and risk aversion has greatly improved. The current market consumption is still expected to be expected, and aluminum prices will be removed or rebounded with inventory. It is not recommended to chase the empty operation. It is expected that the 04 contract this week's fluctuation range is 18,000-18500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being.

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Next : Aluminium daily review(14 March 2023)

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Kyle Joyce

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Aluminium daily review (15 March 2023)