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Aluminium daily review(14 March 2023)

Author : Kyle

Update time : 2023-03-14 15:38:44

Aluminum daily review

Aluminum prices are still relatively low, and the market is more active

· Review of the market

Today, the opening price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum AL2304 was 18,245 yuan, the highest price in the daily day was 18,465 yuan, and the lowest price in the daily day was 1,8130 yuan. Today, South China aluminum price was reported to 18,260 yuan, down 0 yuan from the previous day. Today, the average spot price of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai was 18220 yuan, down 10 yuan, SMM reported 40-flat water, and the average price was 20 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day.

Today Information ·

Spot goods

Today, the market is superimposed to the exfoliation of the relatively low -level aluminum prices to the exfoliating of inventory. The market is optimistic about its emotions. Both traders and downstream are actively admitted to procurement. active. The future price rises, the holder's shipments are raised, and the quotation is about +70. The buyer chase the rise in inquiry to make up for the relatively low price supply, part of the transaction. The spot transaction price is concentrated at 18270-18330 yuan.

Macro

1. At the end of February, the balance of the broad currency (M2) in China (M2) was 27.552 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9%year -on -year, a seven -year high; the RMB loan in February increased by 1.81 trillion yuan. Increased 270.5 billion yuan, of which household deposits increased by 792.6 billion yuan. The increase in social financing in February was 3.1 trillion yuan.

2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the US Federal deposit insurance company worked overtime to formulate Silicon Valley Bank solutions on weekends. It is considering a series of options for Silicon Valley Banks, including acquisitions.

supply and demand

1. The supply side restrictions still exist. Yunnan reduced production and landing. Although Guangxi and Sichuan, the re -production of Guizhou, make up for partial reductions, the operating capacity still decreased by nearly 700,000 tons, and the actual output declined due to the current supply and demand of restarting production capacity. There is still a certain amount of imports, but it cannot make up for production reduction. The average daily output in March will still decline.

2. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises continued to rise by 0.2 percentage points to 63.2%last week. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum profiles and regenerative alloy sectors has risen relatively obviously. The operating rate of aluminum plate with foil and cable companies remain at a high level. On the whole, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises has steadily rebounded.

3. As of March 10, 2023, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 310,888 tons, an increase of 8,289 tons from the previous week. LME aluminum inventory was 551,175 tons, an increase of 4,350 tons from the previous week. On March 09, the total inventory of the electrolytic aluminum society was 1.193 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 09, 2023, the total of 178,000 tons of aluminum sticks in the country, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous week.

· Summary ·

In summary, the short -term market will continue the pattern of slow improvement of supply and demand fundamentals. The output declined in the phase due to Yunnan's reduction in place, and the supply end was downward. The consumer side has continued to improve, but the overall demand is weak, the explicit inventory is relatively slow, and the explicit inventory is still at a high level. In the near future, macro -faced emotions have fluctuated. In February, non -agricultural data performance exceeded expectations, and the risk of raising interest rates 50bp has not been excluded in March. The thunderstorms of Silicon Valley Bank have exacerbated the market's concerns about systemic financial risks, and risk aversion has increased significantly. Last week, aluminum prices were weakly operated. The current market consumption is still expected to be expected, and aluminum prices will be removed or rebounded with inventory. It is not recommended to chase the empty operation. It is expected that the 04 contract this week's fluctuation range is 18,000-18500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being.

Previous : Aluminium daily review (15 March 2023)

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Kyle Joyce

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Aluminium daily review(14 March 2023)